With the summer season in full swing, two factors are of particular interest to UK gas market participants, storage levels and gas infrastructure maintenance. As temperatures rise, the fundamental drivers of the UK gas market shift. Whilst forecast cold snaps could signal price spikes in Winter, markets tend to be more resilient against such factors in summer. Demand for injection into storage, and reduced capacity due to maintenance, have more weighting, particularly in the short to medium term.
As gas demand for heating reduces in the spring/summer months, the UK traditionally begins to top up its Medium Range Storage (MRS) sites ready for winter. Lower demand and improved weather also makes this the ideal time for annual infrastructure maintenance projects. This article will discuss how the UKs MRS has evolved, the role of LNG in this evolution and what this means for the energy markets. We will also discuss upcoming maintenance projects and the expected impact on Norwegian flows to the UK.
Figure 4 illustrates the gas supply mix from 28th April to 11th May 2020